Population Projection –

Newtown May Already Have Hit The 25,000 Mark

By Steve Bigham

Newtown’s population may have already surpassed the 25,000-person mark, according to local officials who continue to monitor the town’s unprecedented growth.

Earlier this year, the state Department of Health put Newtown’s population at more than 24,300 people, but those figures are more than a year old and the health department tends to underestimate them anyway, according to John Chew, director of the Housatonic Valley Council of Elected Officials (HVCEO).

“I think the 2000 Census will be show that number to be significantly higher than the 24,300 figure,” said Mr Chew.

Early results from the 2000 Census are due out in little more than a month, and Mr Chew expects the numbers to be something of an eye-opener. However, he points out that the early figures will come with an asterisk attached. He expects numerous court suits disputing the population figures, not so much in Newtown but in larger cities where special interest groups jockey for additional government funding, representation, etc.

“There were a significant number of lawsuits after the 1990. It dragged on for 18 months to two years before we could consider the total population figure final. Ten years later, that problem has been accelerated,” Mr Chew explained.

Based on its current zoning laws, Newtown’s population is projected to someday increase to more than 38,000 residents. The projection foretells a long road of transformation for an already fast-changing town.

The statistics were provided by the HVCEO, which keeps close tabs on the development of area towns. The numbers were not new, but they served as a reminder that Newtown has the capacity to someday resemble Trumbull or Southington – two towns with populations in the 40,000 range. And the numbers could end up going even higher. The projections were made based on 1980 zoning practices, long before Newtown began approving high-density applications for multi-family housing like Walnut Tree Village and The Homesteads. Additional sewer and water installations could also serve to drive the population even higher.

“If you took Year 2000 zoning laws and did the same analysis, your number would probably be somewhat higher,” Mr Chew explained.

The numbers do not come with dates attached. Several factors, specifically the economy, will determine when and if Newtown reaches the 38,000 or 40,000 person plateau. But those who track the town’s development rate for a living say it is already on its way.

According to the Connecticut Conference of Municipalities (CCM), Newtown’s population was not expected to hit the 24,000 mark until 2020. However, town officials believe Newtown’s population has already reached the 24,000 mark thanks to the construction of 1,400 new homes since 1994. With 40 percent of its land still classified as open space, the potential for further development in this town is easy to see.

“My feeling is this OPM projection may be low for Newtown because so many commuters [from lower Fairfield County] are finding Newtown. And it’s not just the economic activity of Newtown, but the economic activity of other areas as well,” Mr Chew said.

Land Use Department Head Rita Macmillan reported earlier this year that Newtown’s building boom shows no signs of letting up with numerous applications still being approved with many others waiting in the wings.

First Selectman Herb Rosenthal has run successfully for office by emphasizing the need to preserve the character of Newtown. He has had his work cut out for him from the start.

“We certainly have been feeling the pinch from all this growth,” Mr Rosenthal said this week. “It continues to put pressure on the budgets. I believe the only way to offset this burden on the taxpayers is to get additional commercial tax revenue.”

According to Tax Collector Carol Mahoney, a new homeowner’s tax bill will never match his family’s cost to the town in terms of services, especially if the homeowner has children. Recent statistics show that it cost a town in the range of $7,000 a year to educate a child in Newtown.

“If you have two kids that’s $14,000. There are not a lot of homes in Newtown that pay $14,000 in taxes,” Mrs Mahoney said.

What homes pay that much? According to the tax office, only those homes in the $700,000 range or more generate that kind of tax revenue.

 That is why town officials are advocating more commercial development in Newtown. The areas include Fairfield Hills, Hawleyville, and the proposed Technology Park off Commerce Road, which the town recently offered to convey to the town for a dollar.

 “We don’t want to change the character of the community, so we have to take advantage of the areas that are already developed,” Mr Rosenthal said.

The first selectman said he feels as strongly that Newtown can not afford to continue to raise taxes. However, residential growth equates with higher taxes, and that is a fact everyone must face, according to the first selectman.

The alternative is that the town could purchase available open space or buy the development rights to certain parcels, Mr Rosenthal noted. However, that is an expensive proposition. In Newtown, thanks to its 60-square-mile size, the town would need to purchase large tracts of land to make a difference.