Date: Fri 01-Oct-1999

Publication: Bee

Author: SHANNO

Quick Words:

Farmer's-Almanac-weather

Full Text:

Whither The Weather? The Almanac Editors Know...

(with cuts )

BY SHANNON HICKS

On the eve of the 21st Century and the 224th year of American independence

Yankee Publishing Incorporated is celebrating a grand little achievement of

its own: The publication of the 208th edition of The Old Farmer's Almanac .

Established in 1792 by Robert B. Thomas, the annual bulletin was originally

published under the title The Farmer's Almanac . The tome became "Old" in

1832, four decades into its then-young life.

The Almanac has always contained recipes for both health cures and cooking,

planting tables and fishing charts, entertainment and other information --

including, of course, those long-range weather forecasts. But as the Almanac

enters the fourth century in which it has existed, it continues to remain not

only a standard but also up with current events. Current and expected clothing

fashions, music trends and even collectibles are all covered.

The publication still offers gardening advice -- which this year includes "12

Gardening Myths and Why They're Wrong" -- and home remedies for the family

pet, but the information is now available not only in hard print between the

pages of that familiar yellow soft-cover publication, but much of it can also

be found on Yankee Publishing's award-winning Web site (www.almanac.com).

No one really knows how the weather predictions can be made so far in advance.

No one, except the editors at Yankee Publishing, of course. They are

apparently sworn to secrecy because 200-plus years after the Almanac began

being published, readers continue to be dumbfounded at the Almanac 's 80

percent accuracy promise. That seems better than most meteorologists.

The only hint readers are given is as oblique as some of the weather

predictions. "We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula devised by

the founder of this Almanac in 1792, enhanced by the most modern scientific

calculations based on solar activity and current meteorological data," states

one small notice under each year's holidays and observances listing.

"We believe that nothing in the universe occurs haphazardly but that there is

a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena, thus making long-range weather

forecasts possible," continues the notice.

The 1999 Old Farmer's Almanac predicted cooler than normal temperatures and

below-normal rainfall during April and May. Rainfall would continue to be

lower than normal June through August, it also predicted, which was indeed a

good call for the summer of 1999.

The Almanac said we could expect above-normal hurricane and tropical storm

activity, with the first half of September particularly active. "A hurricane

will bring heavy rain to the coast in the second week of September," the

editors put in writing.

Of course, with Hurricane/Tropical Storm Floyd coming up hard along the East

Coast the second full week of September, that prediction sure sounds like it

was right on the money.

On the other hand, considering this is hurricane season, that was a pretty

easy one to call, especially when you're shooting to maintain 80 percent.

Another safe bet: The 1999 Almanac also says, "As November approaches, another

winter is on the way." Talk about keeping your averages on key!

Good Fishing & A Cold Winter

Half the enjoyment of The Old Farmer's Almanac is not in using it for pinpoint

weather accuracy but for its additional tried-and-true general calculations.

Fisherman can count on the Almanac to tell them what the best days and nights

will be to get out on the water. The Almanac says best fishing occurs, with

optimum conditions, starting on the day the Moon is new and continuing through

the day it is full. For the remainder of 1999, look for good fishing October

9-24, November 7-23 and December 7-22.

Meteor showers are expected to originate from the south on October 22 (the

Orionid shower), November 9 (Tourid), November 18 (Leonid) and November 25-27

(Andromedid); from the northeast on December 14 (Geminid); and the north on

December 22 (Ursid). The Almanac does caution that the date of maximum

occurrence (the dates presented in the previous sentence) may vary by one or

two days in either direction.

Moon cycles are very important to the crops of gardeners who follow the

intervals religiously. For that reason, The Old Farmer's Almanac also includes

information on when to expect total eclipses of the moon, partial eclipses of

the sun, and full moon dates. The first total eclipse of the Moon next year,

by the way, will be during the January 20-21 overnight.

Of course, the strongest attraction of The Old Farmer's Almanac is exactly

what the annual digest has become known for: the weather predictions. So what

are we in for?

The General Weather Forecast calls for "below-normal precipitation [in all

forms, either rain or snow] in much of the country." On the other hand, the

editors also say weather events will lead off the evening news "more often

than we'd like in the coming year."

According to the Region 1 (New England) Forecast, the winter of 1999-2000 will

"average close to normal in temperature and precipitation." Snowfall, the

forecast continues, will be above normal in the north but below normal

elsewhere in the region.

Winter begins at 2:44 am EST on December 22. The Almanac says we can expect "a

big snowstorm in mid-December," and not to expect a January thaw as "cold air

will be persistent, capped by record low temperatures late in the month."

Speaking of December 22, The 1999 Old Farmer's Almanac says we will also have

the final full moon of the millennium, "a last hurrah of unusual brightness,"

as it's being called, that evening.

And is there a hint here for a white Christmas? An article from the 1999

edition on lunar illuminations also mentions "the solstice night of December

22... with the full Moon beaming down on a blanket of snow."

In The 2000 Old Farmer's Almanac the Region 1 Forecast has its first mention

of snow on November 19-24 ("snow north"), followed by "windy, cold, flurries"

the week of November 25-30.

In December, get ready for everything from snow (December 1-3), a few flurries

(December 4-8), rain to snow (December 9-15) and a snow storm (December 16-18)

to "colder, rain and snow" towards the end of the month (December 24-26).

New Year's Eve looks extremely chancy for the millennium changeover. The

editors are suggesting "light snow across much of New England, with light rain

from New York City to Washington, D.C."

The last mention of snow occurs at the end of March. April showers will bring

a dry, then hot and humid May. The first heat wave of the Northeast will come

at the end of June. Record heat follows by the end of July.

August looks like typical New England August: Everything from sunny and warm

(August 1-5) to hot and few thunderstorms (August 6-15), and then warm, with

heavy rain (August 19-26). Then September and October start by alternating

between sunny and hot to raining each week in September, to what looks like a

full month of rain in October.

October might be the month to explore the rest of what comprises The 2000 Old

Farmer's Almanac . Originally conceived as sources of information and

entertainment, farmer's almanacs once served the same role that magazines,

radios and television do today.

Come the rainy season of next October -- if not sooner -- it might be a good

time to stay indoors and read up on the articles in the new edition of The

Farmer's Almanac . Readers can learn "How To Become A Prophet," or read "Five

Stories From the Hall of Fame," "Favorite Foods for Family Reunions," "The

Greatest Bargains of the Last 100 Years" and even "Horseshoeing: Still A

Ringer of a Career."