Date: Fri 16-Apr-1999

Publication: Bee

Author: CURT

Quick Words:

iinfo-Brand-ISPs

Full Text:

INTERNET INFO FOR REAL PEOPLE: ISPs -- Large and Small

By Bob Brand

The latest statistics from the market research firm, Yankee Group, claim that

25 percent of US homes have Internet access. They predict that by the end of

2003 that figure will grow to 67 percent. Equally surprising is the finding

that 46 percent of PCs in the homes are used primarily to connect to the

Internet.

Numbers used to define this explosive growth are imprecise at best. For

example, today there are between 6,500 and 7,000 ISPs (internet service

providers). Less than two years ago there were 4,500. In the face of numerous

mergers and consolidations, more continue to enter the marketplace.

A February '98 Forbes article spotlighted George Peace who operates a 7,500

customer "Mom and Pop" ISP out of a corncrib near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Peace charges subscribers $10/month for the first 50 connect hours. While the

article paints Peace as a one time Unisys Corporation technologist with an

aversion for milking cows, I recognized his name as a former Fidonet BBS

(bulletin board service) honcho. Peace has followed in the footsteps of Tom

Jennings (colorful Fidonet founder) to the Internet.

On the other side of the ISP spectrum sit the massively large providers. AOL

(technically not an ISP but an online provider) claims 16 million subscribers.

MSN (Microsoft Network) has 1.8 million, while AT&T Worldnet claims about 1.5

million.

In the 500 to 600,000 subscriber ranges are Earthlink, Mindspring and RCN (the

integration of JavaNet, Erols, Interport Communications and UltraNet

Communication). While RCN is a large northeast regional ISP (coverage from

Boston to Washington DC), it competes with SNET (Southern New England

Telephone part of SBC) with a dial-in base estimated to be 125-135,000 strong.

Coming On Strong

The upstart free web/e-mail provider Netzero boasts to be the "fastest growing

Internet access provider in history." With a current base of 400,000 surfers

(target goal of one million by September '98) comments in Usenet newsgroups

and techno-cyber feedback indicate a preponderance of happy campers using

Netzero. At the current rate of growth, Netzero appears headed toward major

player status in the new millennium.

Surfers who demand the highest possible "Net performance" will be drawn to

broad bandwidth providers as xDSL and cable access gain wider availability. In

spite of widespread grousing about poor performance of @home's delivery of

cable Internet access, cable is viewed as a major threat to many traditional

small ISPs. While there continues to be constant stream of complaints about

AOL, traditional ISPs have not been able to make significant gains into AOL

turf. AOL has plans for the availability of broadband access. This will

provide them with a "Star Wars" defense weapon to soften complaints.

As I See It

The Internet marketplace is on the front edge of a trend where ISPs will offer

PCs for a low monthly cost bundled with Internet access. In addition, high

speed access from cable available in the $30-$40/month range will siphon off

the premium end of the market. A number of ISPs are complaining that the Baby

Bells are attempting to freeze them out of the high-speed end of the market.

The no-cost end of the market will head toward a Netzero-esque world. Over

time, a "traditional" smallish ISP, dependent upon dial-up customers, will be

caught in the middle. Predicting the disappearance of the small ISPs has

produced many red-faced journalists. However, it is safe to say that the

Golden Age of Mom and Pop ISPs is coming to a close. Running Linux OS on a Sun

UltraSPARC attached to banks of modems will not be enough to guarantee success

in a crowded field of me-too ISPs.

The Rise of Linux

The Internet community has not absorbed the impact of widespread media

attention showered on Linux. Coupled with the availability of reasonably

priced broadband Internet access (cable and xDSL), low cost Internet

appliances will appear. They will take the form of e-mail and web servers that

become affordable to a growing segment of the Internet community. We continue

to live in interesting times.

URLs (Uniform Resource Locators) of interest:

http://www.internetnews.com/isp-news/article/0,1087,8_84841,00.html

http://boardwatch.internet.com/isp/spring99/internetarch.html

http://www.wps.com/about-WPS/tomj-resume.html

(This is the 150th of a series of elementary articles designed for surfing the

Internet. Next, FAQs is the subject on tap. Stay tuned. Until next week, happy

travels through cyberspace. Previous issues of Internet Info for Real People

can be found: http://www.thebee.com. Please e-mail comments and suggestions

to: rbrand@JUNO.com or editor@thebee.com.)