Reviews Enrollment Projections—

School Board Says ‘Good-Bye’

To Interim Administrators

By Martha Coville

Interim Superintendent Thomas Jokubaitis and Interim Newtown High School Principal Jay Smith attended their last Board of Education meeting Tuesday, December 18. Beginning in January, Janet Robinson and Charles Dumais will assume the roles of superintendent and high school principal, respectively.

Board members praised both interim administrators. Mr Jokubaitis and Mr Smith began working in Newtown last July. During their tenure, they worked with the school board to develop the plan for the proposed high school expansion. The expansion was deemed necessary in 2005, when The New England Association of School and Colleges placed Newtown High School on “warning” status, chiefly because of overcrowding.

Lisa Schwartz, vice chairperson of the Board of Education said Mr Jokubaitis helped the school board flesh out plans for the expansion. “When we interviewed him, Mr Jokubaitis said, ‘I’m not here to make any radical changes [to your plans]. I’m not here to rock the boat, I’m here to steer the ship.’” Ms Schwartz said, “He was only here for five months, but he did steer the ship, and helped move it forward.”

Chairperson Elaine McClure thanked Mr Jokubaitis diving into a difficult job. “You really put your arms around Newtown,” she said. She told Mr Smith, “We hear a lot about what’s going on at the high school, and it’s all good.”

Enrollment Projections

In the context of proposed high school expansion, the Board of Education reviewed the second of two reports commissioned to project school enrollment to 2017.

Mr Jokubaitis said he received the first report, commissioned from Dr Peter Prowda, on November 15. The board reviewed the report at its November 20 meeting, and followed Mr Jokubaitis’s recommendation to commission another projection from education consultant Bruce Bothwell.

Until his recent retirement, the Newtown School Board had commissioned several enrollment projections from Mr Bothwell. On November 20, Mr Jokubaitis suggested that the board ask him for projections for two reasons. He said that Dr Prowda’s report “represents a substantial difference from previous enrollment projections the board had obtained.” Dr Prowda surprised the board by predicting an overall decline in enrollment over the next ten years

Mr Jokubaitis also said he was concerned that the November 15 report represented the first Dr Prowda worked for Newtown as an independent education consultant. Dr Prowda had prepared a variety of reports for Newtown, including enrollment projections, as a population expert for the Connecticut State Board of Education. Mr Jokubaitis said he wanted to commission a second report because “the range of numbers from two independent enrollment projections will give the board an opportunity to validate projections and use them wisely for continued planning purposes.”

Mr Jokubaitis said he received Mr Bothwell’s enrollment projections on the afternoon of December 18, shortly before the Board of Education meeting. The report was not available to The Bee at press time.

According to information provided at the board meeting, Mr Bothwell’s report included “high” “medium,” and “low” projection numbers for the 2008–2018 school years. His medium projections essentially matched those provided by Dr Prowda.

Mr Jokubaitis said he wants make sure the proposed expansion effectively addresses concerns about overcrowding. He said, “I want to make sure you don’t need more space in ten years.” He recommended that the board use Mr Bothwell’s high projections.

Board member Lillian Bittman said she wanted to make sure the enrollment projections reflect Newtown’s potential for further population growth. She said, “I feel we were a little blindsided by the last upturn [in student enrollment].”

Ms Bittman also said that Dr Prowda’s conservative projections would not require that the board scale down its plans for the proposed expansion. On November 20, she said that Dr Prowda projected a high school population of 1,773 students. Since there are currently 1,719 students at enrolled at NHS, she said that “in 2017, even with the decline in enrollment, we’ll still be in same boat we are today.”

Mr Jokubaitis said that Dr Prowda admitted that his projections were conservative, and said that he had offered to discuss them with the board after the winter vacation.

The Board of Education is planning a special “workshop” meeting to discuss the high school expansion. The meeting will take place within the first two weeks of January, and the superintendent will post the date on the district’s website, www.newtown.k12.ct.us.