Enrollment Projections Support High School Expansion Plan

To the Editor:

In last week’s article about the selectmen’s decision to stop the high school expansion funding, Newtown Bee reporter John Voket used the term “downward trending” three times. Selectman Paul Mangiafico even raised the concern that the student population might shrink below today’s high school capacity of 1,600. This is ridiculous. It is apparent that some people want to raise fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the scope of the high school expansion.

This is very simple. Dr Prowda’s ten-year projections (to which they are referring) show an upward trend for the high school population. In ten years, we will be more overcrowded than today. Granted, there is a peak in seven years — when our second graders reach high school.

Dr Prowda also pointed out a problem in our school system today — the trend that fewer and fewer of our eighth graders are continuing on to our high school. He said it was due to the school being overcrowded, and that once the expansion was built, that trend would stop. The result? The high school population will peak at 1,921 students in 2014, and then settle on 1,849 by 2017.

Dr Prowda said his estimates, if wrong, were conservative. Dr Prowda also showed that five of his previous projections were only off by an average of one percent per year. That’s excellent, but if he underestimates by just one percent per year, we will actually exceed the planned expansion’s capacity in 2014, and stay above capacity through the end of the ten-year period.

If there is a downward trend for the high school, it occurs beyond the ten-year planning horizon. Trends beyond ten years depend on birth rates, the economy, and fundamentally whether Newtown will remain vibrant with incoming young families, or start to age, like Bethel. This is hard to predict — but we don’t need to. Our issue is today, and the next ten years.

The expansion supports a maximum of 2,022 students. Dr Prowda’s projections lead to a post-expansion peak of 1,921. This gives us five percent room for error, growth, and the expected increase in graduation requirements.

Hopefully our leaders will allow the expansion to move to a referendum — please vote Yes. A No vote will delay us by more than one year, impact at least an additional 500 incoming students, force us to throw away $2.75 million already spent, increase our building costs and undoubtedly cost us more.

Thomas J. Bittman

17 Rose Lane, Sandy Hook                                           March 26, 2008