School Board Hears Report On Expected Enrollment Decline
An enrollment report was presented to the Board of Education on November 5 confirming the expected decline in student populations over the next decade.
Each of the three projection models reported an enrollment decrease over the next ten years, ranging from roughly 28 percent to 17 percent, based on local economic and other conditions.
Milone & MacBroom representatives Rebecca Augur and Michael Zuba, a principal planner, presented the enrollment report Wednesday evening.
Mr Zuba explained the first five years of the study are more solid, given that they are based on students already in the school district. Looking ahead for the second five years of the study, five to ten years in the future, Mr Zuba said assumptions guide the projections.
“The current enrollment situation of the decline of the projection are really a result of economic and housing conditions, and demographic conditions over the last decade,” Ms Augur summed up for the board, when sharing “key findings” from the study.
While the total population in Newtown grew by about ten percent in the 2000s, according to the study, population is projected to remain flat and stable until 2020. The study also reported that annual births have “steadily declined since 2002.” Currently birth rates are about half of that in the 1990s growth period, and there was a 20 percent decrease of females of child-bearing age living in the area in the 2000s.
According to one graph in the study, births peeked at 372 in 1997, and declined to 164 in 2013. With the decline in birth rates, the report also highlighted a decrease in younger families, and an aging population overall.
Localized and short-term impacts from the events of 12/14 were seen in the study, but Ms Augur said it was largely the other factors — economic conditions, housing conditions, and demographic conditions — that led to the enrollment decline.
Some lower levels in the 2013-14 school year were recorded, and Ms Augur said Milone & MacBroom took a closer look at Sandy Hook School specifically.
“It’s clear that students that were enrolled on 12/14 were affected by the events and you did lose students as a result,” said Ms Augur. “However, [2014-15] persistency ratios bounced right back.”
Bottoming Out?
New students were not deterred from entering Sandy Hook School, according to Ms Augur, who pointed out that the rate of students entering kindergarten in 2014-15, when compared to the rate of births, was higher than previous years.
“The overall projections show a continued decline for [kindergarten through twelfth grade] over the entire projection horizon,” said Ms Augur, “but we do see a bottom to the elementary drop. There should be a rebound or at least a leveling off, especially if there is any kind of up-tick in the housing market locally.”
Three projection models — low, medium, and high — were reported for the school board. Each used annual births, average unemployment rates, and annual housing sales assumptions, based on previous conditions, to assess the potential effect on enrollment.
“All of these assumptions really impact your elementary enrollments,” said Ms Augur, “especially in the ten-year out horizon… Students that are already in the system are going to be moving through your intermediate, middle, and high schools, and those are smaller class sizes. So that decline really is coming.”
In the low-growth model, Ms Augur said the projected overall kindergarten through twelfth grade decline for the first five years is about 18 percent. In the low-growth model, like the other models, there is a projected rebound in the elementary level in the second five years of the study.
The enrollment loss is also predicted to be evenly distributed throughout the elementary schools, according to Ms Augur.
The low-growth model predicts an overall roughly 28 percent decrease in kindergarten through twelfth grade enrollment over the next ten years.
The medium-growth model, which was the recommended model by Milone & MacBroom, assumed, Ms Augur reported, annual births would rise from 166 to 262, average unemployment would drop from 5.7 percent to 3 percent, and annual housing sales would increase from 295 to 410.
“But what you see again is the loss in your fifth to twelfth grades is very similar to the low-growth model,” said Ms Augur. “Again, that’s because those are students in the system already…moving through your system.”
The difference, Ms Augur said, between the low-growth and the medium-growth models is in the second five-year span within the elementary level. While the low-growth projection predicts an 18 percent rebound in grades kindergarten through fourth grade, Ms Augur pointed out the medium-growth projection predicts a 25 percent enrollment rebound in the second five-years of the study.
Overall, the medium-growth projection predicts a roughly 23 percent decrease in kindergarten through twelfth grade enrollment over the next ten years.
The high-growth model, according to the presentation, still projects an overall roughly 17 percent decrease in enrollment over the next ten years. The high-growth model assumes births will rise to 289 a year, average unemployment will drop to 2 percent, and annual housing sales will increase to 600 annually.
Ms Augur said Milone & MacBroom recommended that the school district monitor the birth rates, housing market, and economic conditions regularly to compare the projection models.
After a number of questions were asked about the study, BOE Chair Keith Alexander asked for the study to be included in the board’s meeting minutes online.