2001 Predictions

As the year 2000 comes to a close, I take this opportunity to reflect on Internet happenings of the last 12 months and evaluate my year 2000 predictions.

The big story in 2000 was the resizing of World Wide Web sites as they crashed and imploded across the Internet. From Boo to Pets.com (and everything in between), reality has taken hold. Half-baked ideas written on a paper napkin have been replaced with caution and business plans. The I-honeymoon is over. The packet cloud’s silver lining emerges as a healthier, more robust Internet. Before I look ahead, let me first evaluate the 2000 predictions.

2000 Prediction #1

Free Internet Access Providers (NetZero and others) will make significant inroads into low speed access to the Web.

By the end of 2000, JUNO and NetZero remain the dominant free low-speed providers on the Internet with a combined membership between 15 to 18 million. Only about five million actively use them because free access services (ad supported) find their most important role as “backup” for paid services. The 100 percent ad supported business model has failed, at least thus far. NetZero could disappear in 2001. Prediction accuracy: mixed.

2000 Prediction #2

The availability of higher speed access will accelerate the use of free (advertising supported) or very low cost telephone calls.

DialPad dominates this arena with 11 million users. Just recently, low cost international calling was added to the service. Over the last year, DialPad has improved the quality of the software on over 10 occasions. Free phone calls in the US remains one of the best reasons to purchase broadband access.

2000 Prediction #3

Small Web sites will face much greater frustration in being recognized as the Web continues to explode.

This certainly has happened. Not only do search engines have difficulty indexing the Web but the drive for profitability negatively influences search relevance as search sites trade high placement for ad revenue. Therefore, quality suffers. Currently, many on the Web use Google exclusively because it delivers consistent high quality matches. Overall, search engine satisfaction (aside from Google) remains a major disappointment. Many search engines do not index personal Web sites because they hold little commercial value. Sad.

2000 Prediction #4

Twenty- to fifty-dollar incentives will be offered to Netsters in order to entice them to try new products or services.

While we have seen monetary and discount incentives used as inducements at a few Web sites, this prediction did not take hold in 2000. The absence of profit margins even at sites like Amazon prevented further discounting. Prices on the Web have increased. While bargains have not disappeared completely, finding them gets harder and requires extra patience and perseverance. The Web becomes the location of choice for savings as the economy slows into the new year.

2000 Prediction #5

EBay will continue to hold the top auction spot on the Net throughout 2000.

Fueled by the wild I-exuberance of early 2000 (before the spring ‘00 implosion), many Web pundits predicted the decline of eBay with the rise of “boutique auctions.” Never happened. EBay rules! EBay suffered its share of outages and media slamming (remember the human kidney sale), but the auction site sailed through the storms. EBay appears unstoppable. In fact, it will prosper as newcomers find value and Amazon grapples with problems.

Overall Rating: While the 2000 predictions avoided drama, hype, and wild speculation, on balance the predictions were more right than wrong. On this positive note, I peer into the year 2001.

2001 Prediction #1

As some point in 2001, Internet users will demand not only tough security policies (anti-credit card number theft measures), but also tighter control of personal information and purchasing habits.

 

2001 Prediction #2

The wider availability of broadband access (xDSL and I-cable) will result in far greater use of free/low cost long distance phone calls, video communication (Webcams), and early ventures into movies on the Web.

 

2001 Prediction #3

Spam will get even worse. We will see the meteoric rise of sound files in ads. E-mailers will rebel.

2001 Prediction #4

Wireless technology will not live up to the hype. Security issues will arise and thwart penetration into all-in-one appliances. Technology overload will become an issue in 2001.

2001 Prediction #5

We will see the first successful television show that incorporates elements acknowledging mainstreaming of the Internet. Essentially, a genuine Stephen King-ish experiment will emerge. One can only hope.

The Juggernaut Lurches

In spite of the major DOT COM realignment witnessed during the spring/summer ‘00, 2001 holds huge promise for the Internet. A slowing economy will indeed benefit netsters as herd thinning makes room for stronger, carefully constructed Web sites.

Have a healthy, happy, prosperous New Year.

URLs (Uniform Resource Locators) of interest:

http://www.thebee.com/bWeb/iinfo185.htm

http://www.thebee.com/bWeb/iinfo135.htm

(Note: This is the 238th of a series of elementary articles designed for surfing the Internet. Next, “Opera 5” is the subject on tap. Stay Tuned. Until next week, happy travels through cyberspace. Previous issues of Internet Info for Real People can be found: http://www.thebee.com. Please e-mail comments and suggestions: rbrand@JUNO.com or editor@thebee.com.)