Enrollment Projections Show A School System Straining At The Seams

By Tanjua Damon

After reviewing the two reports from the State of Connecticut and Bothwell Consulting regarding future enrollment at Newtown schools, the Board of Education took up the issue of school capacity Tuesday night.

Board vice Chairman Vincent Saviano presented to the board figures describing the current school capacities. Local schools are currently carrying classes with 23 to 24 students. The principal contrasted that with an ideal capacity of 20 students per class.

“We are way over, whether you are looking at the Bothwell or State projections,” Mr Saviano said.

Currently at the K-5 grade levels, Newtown elementary schools will reach their maximum capacity next year with the projected enrollment numbers. The middle school is already over capacity.

Mr Saviano told the board that without the 5/6 school, there could be enrollment difficulties within the next ten years according to information in the two reports.

“The one that really tells the strong story is the one at the middle school,” he said. “This school is in very difficult straits if the fifth/sixth school isn’t built.”

With the proposed 5/6 school this would alleviate overcrowding at the elementary school, since fifth grade would be moved, allowing for about four more classrooms.

“Basically the elementary schools will be in good shape if the 5/6 school is built,” Mr Saviano said. “If the 5/6 school opens on schedule, right now, the projections do not show the need for the modulars [classrooms]. It is something we’ll have to keep an eye on.”

The district is currently leasing four modular classrooms at Sandy Hook Elementary. The board needs to decide by July 2001 whether or not they want to purchase them.

With the 5/6 school, the school district will be in better shape in terms of enrollment and space at the middle school, leaving only seventh and eighth graders at the Queen Street facility.

“The real good story becomes the middle school,” Mr Saviano said. “We could even say the middle school will have more flexibility than we’ve had in the past.”

The bottom line is that the district needs the 5/6 school to be built in order to help take care of overcrowding and large class sizes, according to Mr Saviano.

“We need it. The elementary schools need it and this [middle] school needs it,” he said. “It’s highly unlikely we’ll need a new elementary school.”

If the proposed 5/6 school becomes a reality, the capacity at the elementary schools would be at the ideal level of under 2,500 students. The 5/6 school plans to open with about 800 students and would be approximately 300 students under the capacity projections over the next ten years.

The middle school, with just seventh and eighth graders, would be well below the projected capacity of 1,200 students over the next decade, keeping the class sizes down.

The high school is estimated to be over capacity by 200 to 400 students in the next five to six years. But Mr Saviano does not believe a new high school will need to be built. Instead, he pointed to the  possibility of a magnet school or school annex at Fairfield Hills if the town purchases the Fairfield Hills property.

The state projects enrollment in Grades K through fifth to peak in 2007 at about 2,900 youngsters. Enrollment in grades six through eight will reach 1,660 in 2010 and then start to decline. High school enrollment could reach 2,060 students by 2010.

In the Bothwell report, the elementary schools are projected to continue to grow until 2005-06, while the middle and high school enrollments will continue to grow into 2008-09.