Council Told Experts’ Student Enrollment Projections No Longer ‘Helpful’

By John Voket

The same student population experts and projections used to drive the argument for a high school expansion were discounted for future consideration October 7 during a brief “State of Newtown’s Schools” presentation by Superintendent of Schools Janet Robinson to the Legislative Council.

Dr Robinson said that the district was not planning to contract Dr Bruce Bothwell or Dr Peter Prowda, the experts who provided previous taxpayer-funded student population projections, because they failed to include economic indicators in their projections.

The superintendent said she believes economic forces are to blame for a sudden and marked decline in districtwide student enrollment, which was down by about 111 students as of October 1. Currently, Dr Robinson added, the high school population is up 25 students over last year, to 1,729.

Dr Robinson said during her presentation that in the years immediately following the new and expanded high school’s reopening, indicators suggest that population number may dip further. Council member Patricia Llodra, a Republican is seeking the first selectman’s seat in November, asked the superintendent why the growth in population numbers were so much lower than predicted at the upper grade levels.

Dr Robinson replied, “I don’t think the [student population projection] reports from Bothwell and Prowda are helpful.” She added that neither population expert takes economic factors into consideration when making projections, instead relying heavily on birth rates and other factors.

The superintendent said she is currently researching the cost to contract a population projection consultant “who will factor economies.”

Council Finance Committee Chair Joseph DiCandido said, “It looks, based on the trending, like the high school population will decrease.”

Dr Robinson replied that the student counts in lower grades have decreased, and that she needs to get a handle on “what’s going on in the region” to better qualify what is happening locally. She even referenced a study mounted by the Board of Finance with a firm called Planimetrics, which telegraphed a possible temporary drop in student population before an eventual increase may not be “accurate because of economic fallout.”

Mr DiCandido said he has been following the district’s use of projections by Dr Bothwell and that in seven of the last eight years those projections were used, “Bothwell overprojected.”

“He’s off this year, too,” Dr Robinson replied.

Under continued questioning by Ms Llodra, Dr Robinson observed that Ridgefield, which closely mirrors Newtown in many demographics, is experiencing a significant drop in student population, while conversely, Farmington — another similar town — “is only down slightly.”

According to a report distributed by Dr Robinson to the council, the total elementary numbers are down by 68 against 2008; down 41 at Reed Intermediate; and down 33 at the middle school. Since an initial count September 2 districtwide, the overall population has dropped by a dozen students, according to Dr Robinson’s report.

Following the meeting, Legislative Council Chair Will Rodgers, who is seeking a Republican selectman’s seat in November, said he predicted once a drop in enrollment was verified, district officials would blame it on the economy.

“When they wanted a high school expansion, they went to the Bothwell high numbers,” Mr Rodgers said, adding that when the district started losing traction, officials quickly “switched to capacity arguments to justify the expense, student population projections aside.”

Nonetheless, the council chair credited Dr Robinson for being candid in bringing the information to the council.

“I appreciate that she wants to get hard data, and not make anecdotal references linking downward student population trending to the economy,” Mr Rodgers said.

Resident Robert Merola, who also volunteers on a committee exploring consolidating town and school facilities management, said during public comments that he was “dumbfounded” by the revelation.

“I just heard an admission that either the leaders of the town or the town passed a high school expansion that was unjustified in the beginning, and we had a chance to do something about it, and the numbers are still unjustified,” Mr Merola said.

“While the projections are going like this,” he said pointing up, “the actuals are going like this,” Mr Merola said with his thumb pointed downward.