Commentary—

A New Cold War Is All Too Possible

By Victoria Samson

The Cold War ended in our favor, Americans like to think, more than 15 years ago. However, with the United States busy in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Russia flush with money from high oil prices, the situation could shift in the not-too-distant future.

Nowhere is it written that the United States must remain eternally ascendant. But neither does that mean that the United States should have to rush toward an unnecessary confrontation.  

The program that appears poised to do just that is the US missile defense system. Outside of the normal irritants of seeing a country spend billions (over $100 billion since 1983, and at least half that again through the next decade) for a system that is unproven against a threat that may not exist, this proposed system is needlessly heating up relations between the United States and Russia.

The United States now wishes to extend its missile defense to two sites in Eastern Europe, up to ten interceptors in Poland and a radar installation in the Czech Republic. Washington argues that these sites are necessary to defend against the Iranian long-range ballistic missile threat, which currently is not present nor is expected to emerge until the middle of the next decade at the earliest. Talks are currently being held with the governments of the potential host countries, with an official agreement not expected for another two years — after the Bush administration leaves office.

Moscow, on the other hand, is furious at what it sees as the United States inserting itself into what used to be Russia’s sphere of influence. Imagine the US dismay if Russia were to deploy missile defense sites in Mexico.  

Partially to head off such an affront, Russia has been taking increasingly bellicose steps in its foreign policy since the spring. It has announced that by the end of the year it will stop abiding by the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which was one of the first agreements signed at the end of the Cold War and vastly limited munitions on both sides of the former Iron Curtain. Russia has intimated that it may pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, a bilateral agreement from 1987 that was years in the making and eliminated a whole class of nuclear weapons.

Perhaps realizing that, in this case, both carrots and sticks are warranted, Russia has also made a few offers to cooperate with the United States on its missile defense system. Russia’s old early warning site in Gabala, Azerbaijan, has been offered to be upgraded to become part of the system; alternatively, a new radar site could be built on Russian soil.  

Moscow has also proposed the establishment of jointly run missile early warning centers that could include NATO, with the hopes of eliminating confusion, should either side misinterpret an innocent missile launch as the start of a nuclear exchange. Given that both the United States and Russia still have 2,000 nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert, increased transparency is always a good idea.

Yet this offer comes with a catch. Russia has stated that its suggestion for cooperation is contingent on the United States halting its missile defense expansion into Eastern Europe and that the United States also stop work on its space-based missile defense program ($10 million for which was requested in Fiscal Year 2008 defense funds. Overall, the Pentagon plans to spend $290 million on the project through Fiscal Year 2013). Digging in its own heels, US officials have repeated that, while they are intrigued by the offer to cooperate, no restrictions will be accepted.

It is possible that Russia made its offer simply because it knew that the United States would reject it, or that its goal was to wait out the clock until the next administration comes into office. Either way, in the meantime, the Bush administration’s continued efforts to push for the Eastern European sites are souring relations between the United States and Russia. If Washington continues forcing this issue, we may discover that no matter who is in office two years from now, the United States and Russia are approaching a new Cold War.

(Victoria Samson is a research analyst for the Center for Defense Information, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., that focuses on military and security issues.)