Date: Fri 01-Jan-1999

Publication: Bee

Author: KAAREN

Quick Words:

Internet-Predictions-Brand

Full Text:

INTERNET INFO FOR REAL PEOPLE: 1999 Predictions

By Bob Brand

Yippee! 1998 is over. Once again, we gaze into the digital crystal ball for a

few of the changes we expect to see in the New Year. Before that, let's

examine the 1998 predictions to assess what actually happened.

1998 Prediction #1:

We will hear deep anxiety about the Year 2000 Bug (Y2K).

This happened. "60 Minutes" had Steve Croft run a Y2K segment in which some

dire predictions were made. The December 27 issue of the Sunday New York Times

ran a front page feature article on the issue.

The awareness of the problem has certainly escalated. The overall impact

remains uncertain.

The US Treasury will have $50 billion in extra currency printed by the end of

1999 in order to avoid a panic run on the banking system. Y2K will be a

continuing story in mainstream media and the Net throughout 1999.

1998 Prediction #2:

Free long distance telephone calls will be available from many ISPs.

This did not happen. This prediction involved the widespread use of VoIP

(Voice over Internet Protocol). While great strides have been made in the

business sector at medium- to-large corporations on private networks (VPNs),

this has not filtered down to the general Internet population as yet. The

slowness in the development of standards (hardware and software) is the

primary problem.

However, we will continue to see improvements. Already, many companies

advertise long distance calls for 10 cents per minute or less. These rates

will continue to drop in 1999.

1998 Prediction #3:

Lots of Java-based software will become available in 1998.

The Java language continues to enjoy strong momentum with new applications

developed daily. Microsoft has tried to derail this effort but the government

reversed their mischief -- or is attempting to force MS to comply with the

standards set by SUN. Java will continue to evolve in 1999. The netster sees

more and more websites using Javascript (mouseovers and moving graphics) while

surfing at high end sites.

Webmasters are less afraid to use this technique because many more people on

the web use Version 4 browsers -- Netscape and Internet Explorer.

1998 Prediction #4:

We will see a big push for WebTV.

There has been "steady pressure" rather than a big push. There is a growing

population of WebTV users, but potential surfers hear about this by word of

mouth rather than mass media advertising. Perhaps the Justice Department's

anti-trust case against Microsoft, who bought WebTV Networks in 1997, has

temporarily chilled aggressive expansion plans to this market. Nevertheless,

WebTV continues to grow.

1998 Prediction #5:

Spam will become less of a problem in 1998.

Well, almost. In 1998, the notorious Spam King, Stanford Wallace, has left the

stage along with the notorious "Bull's Eye" spammer. High profile spammers are

on the decline, but lesser-known replacements pop up.

This remains an ongoing battle. The ease with which file attachments are

tacked on to e-mail has produced a rise in unwelcomed, often unreadable

e-mail. Both sides of this battle continue to grow in sophistication and

determination.

1998 Prediction #6:

The Internet will NOT be in the mainstream by the end of 1998.

True. Although people on the Internet think that everyone is on the Net, this

is not true. While over 20 million people made cyber-purchases during the 1998

Christmas season (an all-time high), most people trekked to the mall.

In 1998 we witnessed the Ken Starr Report to the Judiciary Committee broadcast

to the Internet, the news media and the White House simultaneously. This event

legitimized the Internet as a primary channel for information distribution.

The Internet IS becoming "mainstream." In 1999, it will get even closer.

1999 Predictions

1) Specialty Search Engines will appear for small websites.

The big SEs (AltaVista, Yahoo!, Hotbot, Infoseek, Excite and others) do not

deliver good matches for quality amateur websites. The little guy is shoved

out of the way. The SE has evolved as the web-tool of choice for finding

information. However, small websites get "lost in the sauce." This will change

in 1999.

2) The Department of Justice will not break up Microsoft.

At some point in 1999, the anti-trust suit against Microsoft will be over. The

company will be slapped with big fines but the company will not be broken into

little pieces. MS Internet Explorer is more popular than Netscape's browser

because IE is slightly better. Quality still counts for something on the

Internet. 3) The battle between fiber and xDSL pitting the cable companies

against the phone companies will not be decided in 1999.

The cost of bandwidth at backbone speeds will drop dramatically in 1999.

However, getting that high speed down to Jon Dough Internet user will not

happen in 1999. Large websites will appear to load faster only because their

HTML gets pushed onto the Internet faster, not because the modem is faster.

Users will be hard pressed to justify the higher monthly cost of speedy (read

greater than 53 kbps) access.

4) Juno will be sold -- perhaps to AOL.

Juno is stuck in Never-Never Land. HotMail, Yahoo!, and other web-mail systems

eclipsed it. Juno must either try a public offering (another wild IPO) or be

on the block for purchase by a bigger fish.

5) More cyber-personalities will appear on mainstream TV/radio.

Matt Drudge has a regular TV show and also guest hosts on major radio

stations. Mainstream media will look and behave more like the Internet in

1999. Personally, I think the Kim Komando Radio Show is dreadful. But that's

me! 6) The Beanie Baby rage will not die off in 1999.

The free flow of information across the Internet and the rising popularity of

cyber-auctions will keep the Beanie Baby fad healthy throughout 1999 by

allowing swapping, buying, selling, adopting, counterfeiting, hijacking, joint

custody, and an assortment of other unspeakable acts. Spending thousands of

dollars for a rag filled with plastic beads only makes sense on the Net.

Well, that's it. Lots of changes ahead. The predictions are not earth

shattering. 1999 will be another exciting year on the Internet.

Happy New Year one and all!

URLs (Uniform Resource Locators) of interest:

http://www.ebay/

http://www.bbb.org/alerts/beanie.html

http://www.tabloid.net/1998/11/24/beaniejunkie_981124.html

Note: This is the 135th of a series of elementary articles designed for

surfing the Internet. Next, "Changes in Juno" is the subject on tap. Stay

tuned. Until next week, happy travels through cyberspace. Previous issues of

Internet Info for Real People can be found: at http://www.thebee.com. Please

e-mail comments and suggestions to: rbrand@JUNO.com or editor@thebee.com.