P&Z Reviews Growth, Change And Trends

By Andrew Gorosko

Planning and Zoning Commission (P&Z) members have endorsed a report on changes in local demographics for inclusion in the ongoing update to the Town Plan of Conservation and Development.

Entitled “Newtown in Perspective: Growth, Change and Trends,” the document gained P&Z endorsement at a July 5 session. The report will be forwarded to the Board of Selectmen and the Legislative Council for review and comment.

Largely based on US Census data, the report notes that the town has experienced population growth for the past eight decades. Notably, the local population grew from 4,023 to 7,448 from 1940 to 1950, representing a blistering 85.1 percent growth rate.

More recently, the census indicated a population of 27,560 in April 2010, reflecting a 10.1 percent growth rate during the first decade of this century. In April 2000, there were 25,031 people who lived here.

By comparison, the growth rate during the 1990s was 20.5 percent, based on the 20,779 people who lived here in 1990.

During the decade ending in 2010, the population of children under age 5 decreased by 33.5 percent. The population of children from age 5 to age 14 increased by 12.1 percent. The population of people from age 15 to age 19 increased by 37.5 percent.

“From a planning perspective, these changes in school-aged population impact school enrollment, park and recreation facility planning, and youth services planning,” the report states.

The town’s population has statistically “aged” during the decades ending in 2010 and 2000, according to the report.

The median age of the population in 2010 was 42.9 years, compared to a median age of 37.5 years in 2000. The 2010 median age for the state was 40 years.

In Newtown, the 25-to-34 and the 35-to-44 age groups showed the largest declines in population among all age categories between 2000 and 2010, reflecting 36 percent and 25 percent decreases, respectively, according to the report.

By contrast, the local population in the 45-to-54 and the 55-to-59 age groups grew significantly, increasing by more than 40 percent for each of those age groups.

The population within the 60-to-64 age group increased by almost 68 percent between 2000 and 2010. Also, the population in the over-65 age group increased by more than 60 percent during that decade, the report adds.

“Changes in the town’s elderly population will impact planning for senior facilities, senior housing, and senior support services,” it states.

“As the Newtown population ages, volunteers for emergency services will dwindle and the town may be forced to hire [people to staff] these firefighting and ambulance association services in the future. Newtown’s focus may become providing a Newtown Senior Academy versus the Newtown Youth Academy that exists today and providing rehabilitation facilities for older adults recovering from medical situations,” the P&Z report states.

The report suggests that revitalizing the town with younger adults may require attracting businesses and industries that tend to hire younger adults. Also, it suggests that the town encourage housing construction that has an attractive price range for younger adults, such as multifamily housing, and also the smaller housing that is typical of residential developments that seek to maximize open space preservation.

According to the report, 40.1 percent of local households contained children under age 18 in 2010, compared to the 46.1 percent of local households that contained children under age 18 in 2000.

The average size of local households has decreased across the past several decades. In 1960, the average household size was 4.51 persons, while in 2010 it was 2.83 persons. “The aging of the population has contributed significantly to the shrinkage of the average household,” the report states.

Housing

According to the report, about two-thirds of the town’s existing housing stock was built between 1960 and 2010.

In the decade ending in 2010, there were 1,460 dwellings built locally, compared to the 1,407 dwellings constructed during the preceding decade.

In 2010, single-family detached housing represented 90.8 percent of the local the housing stock, compared to 92.8 percent in 2000.

In 2010, owner-occupied housing represented 94 percent of the dwellings, compared to 91.9 percent in 2000.

From 1990 to 2010, the residential development trend was the construction of housing on large lots, which accelerated the consumption of land. “Generally, the larger houses constructed on the larger lots are purchased by older middle age adults toward the peak of their careers,” the report states.

 

Land Use

The predominant land use in town is “residential,” with about 48 percent of local land put to that purpose. Agricultural uses cover 16 percent of the land. Federal, state, and municipal governments own ten percent of the land. Transportation land uses, which include Interstate 84, state roads, local roads, and the rights-of-way for roads, cover about six percent of local land area. About nine percent of local land is vacant.

“Newtown’s residential [real estate] market has traditionally been cyclical, responding to the ups and downs of the supporting regional economy and mortgage interest rates. Since the recession began in 2008, housing prices have dropped significantly and as a result, foreclosures have risen. The market inventory for homes has continued to increase and is near its peak in 2012. Applications for new single-family [residential] subdivisions for construction on...large lots is currently nonexistent,” according to the P&Z.

The town’s land use rules have generally resulted in the creation of detached single-family houses on large lots. The P&Z states that in anticipation of a future demand for smaller houses and for lower-maintenance lots, it has created a set of land use rules keyed to maximizing open space preservation within subdivisions, and also has proposed new rules for multifamily housing.

Pointing out that several age-restricted housing complexes that have been built locally and that another age-restricted complex will be built, the P&Z states that the local real estate market for such growth may be saturated.

“Newtown in Perspective: Growth, Change and Trends” will be one of the components of the updated town plan, which P&Z members are seeking to complete by the end of 2012.

The town plan is an advisory document that provides the P&Z with general guidance in its decisionmaking. P&Z approvals or rejections of land use applications typically state whether a given application respectively adheres to or diverges from the tenets of the town plan when P&Z members state their reasons for a decision. The current town plan addresses a broad range of issues facing the town, including: community character, conservation, natural resources, open space, housing, economic development, community facilities, and transportation. The document lists a multitude of planning goals for the town.