Ad Hoc Buildout Committee Gets Draft From Consultants

By John Voket

Two consultants collaborating on a statistical survey for an ad hoc committee formed to study the long-term residential buildout potential in Newtown presented a draft of their report last week. Bruce Hoban of Planimetrics and Dr Hyung Chung of HC Planning Consultants (HCPC) of Orange, who contracts through Planimetrics on population studies, were both in attendance.

The panel includes finance board chairman John Kortze and fellow member Harrison Waterbury, council member Patricia Llodra and former councilwoman Stacie Doyle. The committee was formed after finance board members sought additional long-term projections about Newtown’s likely population growth and other demographic trends going out 20–30 years, so members could be better equipped to consider potential long-term financial planning beyond the community’s five-year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP).

This group worked independently from the town’s Long Term Strategic Planning Committee, but that panel’s co-chair Kathy Fetchick was in attendance at the June 10 buildout committee meeting. Mr Kortze told The Bee following his meeting that the ad hoc panel’s charge was to simply seek data, not to render decisions.

“I was really proud to be working with this group of people,” Mr Kortze said of the committee. “I was pleased that we were able to stick to our objectives to gather data without issuing any conclusions.”

Mr Kortze said upon the issuance and review of the committee’s final report, versus the draft presented last week, it will be circulated to other town committees, commissions, and officials who can use it.

“It’s not about our opinion of the data. We never intended to make this a part of any subjective report,” he added. “I expect whichever boards and commissions are charged with dissecting the data will form opinions and make presentations relevant to a grander plan.”

Mr Kortze did admit, however, that since two finance board members sat on the buildout panel, that he and Mr Waterbury would keep the Board of Finance appraised of the information in the final report.

He said if the town is entertaining future considerations regarding educational needs and public safety concerns, for example, the data in this report could be a road map to help guide anyone involved to more solid conclusions about where to go and how to best apply taxpayer dollars to get there.

Data Needs ‘Massaging’

Mr Waterbury said while he considers the formulation of the report to be a forecast based on previous and current trends, once some necessary subjective input is applied, the report could be a very useful tool for the community.

“To use it as a tool you need to know Newtown. And this [data] will be a good place to start,” he said. “You need to massage the information a bit, but that will be the job of those who will get this final report.”

Ms Doyle said it was helpful for her to see Newtown’s growth potential in terms of timing — how soon the town may reach residential capacity — as well as where the growth is likely to occur geographically.

“Once the growth figures were determined, Planimetrics was able to overlay school district, fire and police patrol districts so that the town can prepare for the [projected] growth,” she said. “This will be an instrumental tool for use in municipal planning.”

She said Dr Chung was clear regarding the limitations of school enrollment projections.

“When asked about the probability of the forecast, he indicated that one would be unable to determine such a probability because the calculations are not based solely on statistics, but also on assumptions,” she said of the local district’s current school enrollment reports.

Ms Doyle said the panel was already aware that arriving at school enrollment assumptions included examining birth rates, housing starts, and various economic factors, all of which guided consultants in developing those projections.

“For instance, both HCPC and [Newtown enrollment consultant Dr Bruce] Bothwell estimate that the high school enrollments will increase; however, HCPC estimates the increase will occur at a slower rate than that projected by Dr Bothwell,” Ms Doyle explained. “Only time will tell with regard to actuals versus estimates.”

Mr Kortze said the presentation of the draft included both broad demographic data that correlated to potential buildouts and local services those buildouts would affect, and the populations that would be impacted or contribute to any buildout bubbles in certain areas of the community.

He said the report used the neighboring community of Trumbull as the closest comparative to Newtown, in that it is very similar in demographics and detail.

“Trumbull is smaller in size, but today the town is at maximum buildout,” Mr Kortze said. “Percentagewise, Trumbull today is most similar to our projected buildout cap. It gives us a good idea of what Newtown may look like in 20 to 30 years.”

Mr Kortze said according to the consultants, Newtown’s greatest future population growth demographic will be among senior populations.

“There will be two to three times as many seniors in Newtown as the next greatest age demographic. And the number of people in those households [is projected] to decrease,” Mr Kortze said.

Enrollment Vs Population

Mr Kortze also indicated that enrollment projections being used by the local school district provide marked differences from the ad hoc committee’s population projections because consultants are using different formulas.

“Population projections are done from July to June; enrollment projections are from October [to September]. Population projections use age groups and enrollment projections use grade levels,” Mr Kortze said.

In presenting his data, Dr Chung took issue with UConn projections being cited by individuals speaking at some town meetings to illustrate Newtown’s future growth potential. He said the UConn projection of 36,000 may not be as accurate as Planimetrics projection of 33,770 because UConn’s data was taken exclusively from growth trends during the 1990s, versus an overlay of several different time periods from 10 to 30 years ago.

Dr Chung added that the past seven years of declining growth in Newtown mirrors a statewide trend. Prompted by a question from Mr Kortze, Dr Chung said generally, an unemployment increase of one percent correlates to an overall population drop of 366 residents.

Ms Llodra told The Bee that most compelling details of the presentation pointed to a need to have a firmer grasp on the financial implications of the eventual buildout cap, and the town’s ability to use that data effectively in planning for municipal needs, including schools, fire and police services, recreation, housing for the elderly, and the like.

“I think the report is provocative in this regard,” she said. “All of our services will feel the pressure of growth and demographic shifts. The town needs to be ready to respond to such needs and not find itself in financial crisis and declination of quality because of the absence of forward thinking.”

She said that the draft information provided a lot of data that has the potential to be meaningful for guiding Newtown in its decisionmaking for the future, provided that leaders of strength and character understand, value, and use the data.

During Dr Chung’s presentation, Ms Llodra asked why his population numbers for individuals age 14–17 were lower than actual enrollment numbers being used by the school district. He replied that he excluded 18-year-olds while enrollment does not, adding that the majority of high school students are between the ages of 14 and 17.

Dr Chung said that he projects Newtown’s high school enrollment will not see any significant increases until 2020 or beyond, and that projections currently being relied upon by school district officials are too high.