Two State Economic, Jobs Recovery Outlooks Present Mixed Data

HARTFORD — The April 2012 Monster Employment Index, analyzed by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc (CERC), shows gains at both the national level and in the New England region overall, but a stubborn Connecticut index showed the same level of growth in online job announcements as last month.

At the same time, the Connecticut Business & Industry Association’s First Quarter 2012 Economic Survey shows Connecticut’s business leaders are proceeding with caution, according to a new survey of businesses in the state.

After the retreat in the Monster index of 2.8 percentage points from February to March, the stable rate from March to April resulted in Connecticut’s index being nearly five percentage points below where it was a year ago. New England is also a point and a half below the index observed for a year ago.

The national index, which has grown from 83.1 percent since January 2012, is now 91.3 percent of the rate of new job openings observed in January 2008 at the start of the economic recession.

“There are glimmers of hope that an economic recovery is mounting,” said Alissa DeJonge, director of research at CERC. “However results like these remind us that we still have a ways to go.”

According to the April report:

*Connecticut’s Monster online technical jobs index remained stable at 82 between March 2012 and April 2012 based on the level observed in January 2008. New England and the nation both increased by nearly two percentage points during the most recent month.

*Both Connecticut and the New England online job offering indices are more sluggish than a year ago. Connecticut shows the offerings for this year to be about five percent below a year ago and the New England region to be about two percent below a year ago.

*Since the recent highest mark for Connecticut in October 2011, the Connecticut index has dropped by 9.3 percent. Using the same timeframe, New England has dropped by 6.1 percent and the United States by 3.3 percent.

*After Connecticut’s index fell for three months after October 2011, it has tended to remain below the measures observed since March of last year.

*Connecticut’s high-tech jobs advertised on the Internet from a variety of online sources is 82 percent of the January 2008 measure. This rebased index shows Connecticut performing six percent better than New England, but now about 9.5 percent below the nation.

Maintaining 2011 Gains

The CBIA survey, however, found that area executives believe the economy and their own firms have maintained gains seen in the fourth quarter of 2011.

“While we still have a long way to go in growing the economy, the last two surveys show optimism and growth expectations on par with slow but steady economic recovery,” says CBIA economist Peter Gioia.

The CBIA survey shows that

*41 percent of respondents see their own firm improving over the next three months and 12 percent predicting worsening. In the last survey, 46 percent saw the potential for improvement, while 14 percent saw the potential for their firm to lose ground.

*On production and sales, the most important determinant of future company performance, 46 percent of respondents anticipate future increases, compared to 16 percent who expect decreases in the second quarter of 2012-findings nearly identical to the results of the fourth quarter survey.

*Jobs should see a slight improvement in the state, as 24 percent of business leaders who responded to the survey expect to add workers and only 10 percent expect to decrease workers over the next quarter. As recently as CERC’s third quarter 2011 survey only 16 percent of respondents said they would add staff, compared to 22 percent who said they would cut staff. Although these numbers are likely to support only slow growth, they represent statistically significant changes.

*The survey saw executives expecting more growth nationally than locally. Nationally, 34 percent of respondents expect the US economy to improve, while 24 percent expect further decline.

*The survey found that business leaders’ confidence in the state remains fairly consistent with fourth quarter 2011 survey results, with 21 percent of respondents seeing the state economy improving and 35 percent expecting continued deterioration.

*Productivity gains are solid but will be tempered by expected added costs. Forty-seven percent of executives see future gains in productivity, but 43 percent see increased wage costs, and 43 percent see total compensation costs going up.

“When you look at the results of the first quarter 2012 survey in comparison to the fourth quarter 2011 results, it’s clear that we haven’t gained much ground, but we haven’t lost any either,” Mr Gioia says. “But it’s important to note that we are showing modest gains over the surveys prior to the fourth quarter of 2011.”

The CBIA survey was conducted in April 2012 with 246 respondents from around the state across many industries. The margin of error is +/- 6.38 percent with a 12.5 percent response rate.