Humans And

Global Warming

To the Editor:

I would like to thank Mr Caracciolo for his letter to The Bee last week [“No Definitive Answer On Global Warning”]. He stated that “the jury is still out” on the question of whether humans are responsible for climate change. I agree that there is a minority of the scientific community that remains unconvinced, despite the large majority of peer reviewed scientific papers (i.e., those written by climate experts) that argue that human generated CO2 is the main culprit.

One problem is that it is impossible to prove that humans are the cause of global warming. We’re unable to do a controlled experiment, which would measure the temperatures on a planet that is identical, except for without the human race!

I think, however, that this debate is really missing the point. While we don’t have absolute proof, there is at least a reasonable chance that humans cause global warming. There are many instances in our lives where we make decisions and invest based on incomplete or uncertain information. These include safety equipment, purchasing insurance policies, money management, etc. Some factors to consider are the probability that something will happen, and the ramifications if it does.

Climate change is such a case, and we should come to grips with this perspective. We should estimate the probability that burning fuels causes warming (50 percent?, 95 percent?) and consider the ramifications, which are beyond huge. This could help our society devise a plan that addresses this uncertain but very real risk.

Sincerely,

Peter Van Buskirk

18 Poverty Hollow Road, Newtown                               April 23, 2008