The NHS Expansion Is Prudent

To the Editor:

The following views are my own, though I believe shared by large number of others. I am vice chair of the Board of Finance. I submit that this high school expansion is extremely important. Here are some clarifying points:

The debt service cost and operating costs of the high school expansion in 2010/2011 will be 0.8 mills (total proposed 23.2 mills). The average taxpayer will see a 2.9 percent tax increase. Of import is that this is an inflated percentage as it does not include subtraction for significant cost and efficiency savings for such things as athletic field life and maintenance, HVAC, etc, nor the fact that a significant gut of $900,000 was removed from this year’s school budget by the Board of Finance (at least for one individual — directly related to the fact that the BoE can’t have it all). So, before subtracting the cost savings and $900,000 removed from the budget, a 0.8 mill cost for a home assessed at $300,000 totals 0.8 x $300 = $240 per year, or about 65 cents per day. Will a strong high school add more than $240 a year to the value of your home?

Much has been said about the enrollment projections. Important, Bothwell himself stated projections past five years are but guesswork: “You are in the land of speculation.” Historically, ten year projections dating back to 1995 show an underestimation of enrollment ranging from 12.91 percent to 15.52 percent (Bothwell and Prowda). A ten percent underestimation puts us at 2,200 students, not the 2,022 to which the expansion is designed.

It was the Board of Finance that secured the viewpoint of the Legislative Council as to the range of enrollment. Legislative Council expressed its opinion…build to the high. The BoE designed to the high. The high is 2,010 students according to Bothwell 2017/18. Prowda has no high or low projections, only a midrange. Extrapolating his midrange number for a comparable 2017/18 high it would be about 1,930 students. This expansion is designed for 2,022. We are guessing over a 10–15- year period for about 92 students, or, a little over six children a year. No one can sharp shoot that accurately. Moreover, the projections demonstrate not a “bubble” but an “upward wave” of students for which we are planning (2007/08 through 2017/18: 1,719; 1,738; 1,834; 1,842; 1,891; 1,927; 1,886; 1,959; 1,931, 1,924, 2,010). If one does a least squares regression analysis, one clearly sees the upward trend line.

Finally, why were the recommendations made to build to the high? Well, Newtown’s last high school expansion was overcrowded upon completion using the high. Ten-year projections are mere guesswork. Historically, ten-year projections have underestimated student enrollment. The state is adding new curriculum requirements that take more space, and the project is significantly more costly if done piecemeal. Of import, no space will be wasted even if this time we are lucky enough to have not underestimated the enrollments.

Thanks.

Jim Gaston

18 Main Street, Newtown                                               April 15, 2008