A number of years ago, before he left and was subsequently reelected to the Board of Finance, Michael Portnoy was analyzing Newtown school district enrollment reports.

And on more than several occasions, he predicted with confidence, that student numbers would begin declining measurably in the near future.

A couple of years later, then finance board member Martin Gersten picked up on the same issue. After reviewing another more recent enrollment study, he suggested the district begin evaluating closing a school – creating what he predicted would be about a million dollars in annual savings for taxpayers.

The delivery of the latest enrollment study validated what Mr Portnoy and Mr Gersten along with numerous other finance board members including long-time Chairman John Kortze and now Vice Chairman Joe Kearney were also predicting: student population declines that could approach 30 percent over the next decade.

This prompted Mr Kortze to tap an equally concerned newcomer to the finance board, John Godin, to initiate an analysis of budget and enrollment predictions with the goal of targeting potential cost savings if and when the district determines it is feasible to close a school.

Mr Godin presented his first, and admittedly presumptive findings January 12.

“This isn’t right or wrong, and it is not definitive,” Mr Kortze told The Newtown Bee following the presentation. “It is step one in what will be a multi-step process.”

Mr Godin said the issue of enrollment, and the potential for declining numbers to prompt consideration of a school closing, had been on his mind “for several months.”

“When I saw these latest enrollment numbers, to me it was a signal to begin a dialogue,” Mr Godin said. “This is a serious discussion. I don’t like talking about it, but we need to get this started.”

Mr Godin labeled his master spreadsheet an “evolving document.”

“I took every line item from the current year’s district operating budget, and attributed expenses to each line item,” he explained. “If it was not attributed to a school, I tried to use logic in attributing it to a school.”

Projected Savings

His out-of-the-gate results illustrate the following potential, preliminary savings if the district were to consider closing one facility – (the high school is not included):

*Hawley School - $994,823

*Middle Gate - $1,100,874

*Head O’ Meadow - $1,060,451

*Reed Intermediate - $1,788,456

*Middle School - $2,002,442

“The good part of this exercise is, I bring no bias. I just set up a baseline,” Mr Godin said. “The best way to make these numbers come to life is by getting more good information and feedback from the district. I’m sure the Board of Finance and the Board of Education wants to make these numbers right.

“It’s certainly the right time with the enrollment study done and both a (district) space needs and town wide facilities study going on,” he added.

Mr Kortze agreed, saying there are likely many other items that can be factored into the formula that could generate even greater savings.

“We would welcome input from [Superintendent Dr Joseph Erardi] and the Board of Education,” Mr Kotze said. “It definitely needs school board and administrative input.”

The finance board chair said Mr Godin’s preliminary analysis “was born out of a general need to understand what any savings might look like.”

“This doesn’t have anything to do with one school or another,” Mr Kortze said, adding he is already reaching out to the state Department of Education and the Connecticut Conference of Municipalities to learn whether other similar-sized towns have successfully orchestrated a school closing, to learn how they accomplished the challenge.

Methodology Detailed

In discussing his methodology for arriving at the potential savings figures, Mr Godin said he broke out six major cost centers: administration/library operations; custodial/maintenance/utilities; maintenance salary location allocations; transportation savings; programming efficiencies; and health/medical cost savings.

“I took 100 percent of the administration and half the library costs out of each (school) budget, because some of those costs will transfer if a school is closed,” Mr Godin said. “To me it was a reasonable assumption.”

He said if a school is turned back to the town, custodial costs will drop dramatically, although there will still be utility and maintenance costs.

“You have to keep some lights and the boilers on, even if the building is vacant for some period of time and unused,” he said.

Mr Godin allocated projected savings in maintenance salary to each building based on current enrollment and exact costs in the current operating budget.

He derived transportation savings by assuming an eight percent reduction in pupil population, then applying an additional eight percent reduction in the local regional educational budget for regular student transportation.

“This could represent a real savings opportunity when negotiating the next transportation contract,” Mr Godin said.

His savings projections for programming efficiencies are admittedly “very raw.”

“I took those cost reductions based on the projected median enrollment projections for the 2016-17 school year,” he said.

Potential reductions in health/medical costs were based on similar assumptions of enrollment declines and reductions in workforce based on median enrollment forecasts.

“Most of these assumptions, I think, are very conservative,” Mr Godin said. “Based on the level of assumptions, I think the ultimate savings will probably be more.”

Dr. Erardi told The Bee that he had an opportunity to review Mr Godin’s document and expressed appreciation for the time, energy, and effort that was put into the projection.

“On January 20 I plan to share with the school board my timeline for bringing back a recommendation to them pertaining to the school facility study,” Dr. Erardi said in an email reply for comment. “The design of the study, which will launch at the end of this month, is to be completed with findings in June 2015 and with a board presentation during the same month.”